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We collected A. tridentata stem samples from 33 plots in 12 prescribed fire sites that burned 8–11 years before sampling. We determined individual establishment years using annual growth rings. We measured seasonal soil environmental conditions at the study sites and asked if these conditions predicted annual establishment density. We then evaluated whether establishment patterns could be predicted by site-level climate or dominant subspecies. Finally, we tested the effect of the magnitude and frequency of post-fire establishment episodes on long-term population recovery.