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Increased herbaceous surface fuel following prescribed fire treatments increased the modeled rate of surface fire spread (ROS) 21-fold and nearly tripled fame length (FL) by year ten post-treatment across all expansion phases. In mechanical treatments, modeled ROS increased 15-fold, FL increased 3.8-fold, and reaction intensity roughly doubled in year ten post-treatment compared to pretreatment and untreated controls. Treatment effects were most pronounced at 97th percentile windspeeds, with modeled ROS up to 82 m min−1 in mechanical and 106 m min−1 in prescribed fire treatments by 10 years post-treatment compared to 5 m min−1 in untreated controls. Crown fire transmissivity risk was eliminated by both fuel treatments. While prescribed fire and mechanical treatments in shrublands experiencing tree expansion restored understory vegetation and prevented continued juniper and pinyon infilling and growth, these fuel treatments also increased modeled surface fire behavior. Thus, management tradeoffs occur between desired future vegetation
and wildfire risk after fuel treatments.